The Mindful Money Investment Interview with Dan Morris of J.P. Morgan Asset Management

25th February 2013

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Dan Morris, global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, talks to Mindful Money’s John Lappin about

the recent global rally in equities,

the fundamentals underpinning the rally,

whether the world is emerging from the worst of the crisis,

the risks facing safe haven assets,

his view of the ‘Great Rotation’,

‘Currency wars’ and what they mean for portfolios

23 thoughts on “The Mindful Money Investment Interview with Dan Morris of J.P. Morgan Asset Management”

  1. Mike from Enfield says:

    Hi Shaun,
    I suppose Carney’s masters would consider the ability to talk b******s with total authority is enough on its own to justify his rather generous remuneration. Was there any actual content or attempted justification of his dubious claims?

    I presume it goes without saying that his audience (both local and global) were nodding sagely in agreement while all this was going on?

    1. Max says:

      You noticed too! :)

    2. Anonymous says:

      Hi Mike

      The problem of content is that it is rather embarassing (we wont hit 7% unemployment rate for years etc…). More better to spew out some hyperbole I guess and rely on his “rockstar” status.

      It was interesting that the US Federal Reserve made some similar moves tonight and also hinted at a spring 2015 interest-rate rise like one or two Bank of England hawks. Is monetary policy like the one ring from the Lord of the Rings now? I suppose it makes it easier for Goldmans but I wonder if rate rises will keep being nudged forwards in time.

  2. Max says:

    Interestingly the front page of “The Times” leads with this…
    “Low interest rates are putting the economy in danger from excessive borrowing and creating conditions with similar risks to those that caused the 2008 financial crisis, the Governor of the Bank of England warned yesterday”

    1. Max says:

      To which I would reply, “put them up then you fraud!”

    2. Anonymous says:

      Hi Max

      The catch is his own promise to do this.From the February Inflation Report.

      “Its principal aim was to help secure the nascent recovery by reassuring households and businesses across the UK that the Bank wouldn’t raise interest rates until jobs, income and
      spending were really growing.”

      Somewhat bizarrely today’s March minutes referred to Forward Guidance type one as if it was ongoing!

      “With unemployment remaining above the 7% threshold, the Committee’s August 2013 policy guidance therefore remained in place and no member thought it appropriate to tighten, or to loosen, the stance of monetary policy at the current juncture. ”

      So it seems that he will talk the talk of dangers of low interest rates but will walk the walk of continuing them for as long as he can.

  3. forbin says:

    Hello Shaun

    democracy at the BoE , I’d like to see some at at HMG and in the Euro Land

    not expecting any soon though…..

    Governance of the People by the Banks for the Banks

    The budget is just a load of codswallop to bamboozle the public

    seems to be doing that just fine

    Forbin

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Forbin

      There are some genuine pension (direct contribution) changes which offer more flexibility to the pensioner whilst offering the likelihood of more tax revenue for the government. A politically cunning move which kicks the can beyond even another term for the Chancellor. We know of course that politically cunning moves invariably end up costing us!

      As to democracy I know that the police commissioners was not a great success but I think electing individuals for specific roles has the hope of a positive change.

  4. Noo 2 Economics says:

    I read about that “diverse forms of finance” a while ago – it boiled down to “give us anything you’ve got and we’ll lend against it”!!

    “This in turn helps make the attainment of the inflation target more likely.
    No it does not Mark”

    Depends on what Carney’s/Osborne’s inflation target really is doesn’t it Shaun?

    Nice to see my prediction a couple of months ago on this forum re rising wages starting to manifest. I’m a bit surprised at how quickly it is arriving, I wasn’t expecting pay to start narrowing the gap to inflation until April/May, but I do believe that by the end of the year pay will be pacing inflation (probably CPI but hopefully RPI).

    Why do I expect this? Because there is no output gap, we are now almost at “full employment” thanks to misguided past policies which have now succeeded in enlarging structural unemployment. Wait for the steady increase in inflation beginning about May/June followed by the big inflation “shock and surprise” next year (assuming the pound can’t remain overvalued for another 6 months), but then agin inflation is nothing to worry about as it’s somehow good for the economy and “temporary”……..

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Noo2

      Do you remember when that was as I am happy for it to be put on here? As to today’s wages numbers I did peer into the data set (crossed eyes alert..) and both Dec and Jan as single months were running at an annual rate of 1.7%. The monthly numbers are somewhat erratic so it is not a straight line to next months being better than 1.4% but there is plenty of hope.

      As to the real target I think they were aiming for 3%+ and have been caught out by the deflationary trends and the rise in the pound or at least the Chancellor has.

  5. midge says:

    Hi Shaun As you and others have said on this blog there is no independence and forward guidance is a sham.It looks likely that Mrs Yellen will also remove unemployment figure from rate setting calculations .
    As it was the last budget before the next general election that without announcing them only weeks before that event I also thought that a rabbit would appear from the Chancellors hat. But to me he seemed to produce several as I am sure you will discuss tomorrow.

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Midge

      From tonight’s Federal Reserve statement.

      “With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance.”

      Oh okay to what?

      “This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.”

      Rather like the UK in many ways especially in the lack of a mea culpa!

      1. roland says:

        Could the decision to change/continue with different sterling instruments some time in the future be telling us something about euro membership?

  6. Eric says:

    Hi Shaun, Great stuff again. A superb indictment of the whole sorry mess. Keep going; keep blogging; keep tweeting. Whatever it takes (heard that before somewhere) to bring some sense, honesty and accountabilty into the process.

    1. Anonymous says:

      Thank you

  7. forbin says:

    Good god Shaun

    coca cola fron Sainsbury – used to have 4 x 2 ltr pack bottles for 6.69 (83.6p per ltr )

    now 5.49 for 4 x 1.5 ltr pack bottles ! (91.5 p per ltr …)

    shrinkflation or higher prices ?

    gah!

    Forbin

    1. forbin says:

      Coca-Cola have replaced their 2 litre bottles of Coca-Cola, Diet Coke and Coke Zero with 1.75 litre bottles across the country.

      from Sainsbury website

      but the 4 pack has 1.5 ltr bottles………

    2. Anonymous says:

      Hi forbin

      It just shows what a difficult job statisticians have faced with powerful companies who are manipulating things with a high degree of acumen. After all aren’t we regaled by the supermarkets with talk of lower prices?

  8. Anonymous says:

    Great column, Shaun. I wasn’t aware of Governor Carney’s speech, but I have viewed it now. Governor Carney opined: “The first Mais Lectures launched the fight against inflation. With time and increased confidence
    policymakers would win that war only to lose the peace.” Surely this evaluation strays so far from the facts as to be delusional. September 2008, the month that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in the United States, the CPI inflation rate was 5.2%. Some hard-fought victory over inflation that was!

    Andrew Baldwin

  9. therrawbuzzin says:

    “Still have promise of shiny new £ coin same as old 3d!”
    And not just in appearance.

  10. Drf says:

    Worth even less too.

  11. Anonymous says:

    Hi Chris

    HM Treasury sent out tweet after tweet today about the new £1 coin. It made me wonder if it feels that we are that easily distracted these days!

    The new £1 coin is also the same shape as the old 12-sided threepenny bit #budget2014 pic.twitter.com/nUXJBMiNgA

  12. Max says:

    Yes, the irony was not lost on me. I think they are making a statement about inflation more than anti-fraud measure. more tea vicar?

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