UK GDP may avoid Q4 contraction

1st November 2011

The numbers, however, are of limited value because of their volatility and susceptibility to large revisions.

A monthly GDP series can be calculated from data on services, industrial and construction output, which account for 99.3% of the total. The monthly output numbers are available up to August and a September estimate can be backed out from the quarterly data in the GDP report. GDP appears to have risen strongly through the quarter, with the September level 0.8% above the quarter average – see chart.

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