9th June 2011
He writes: "The Bank of England is the easiest as any move looks very unlikely. It has been becalmed for a while in a ratio of 1-5-3 where one wants further easing, five want to do nothing and three want to raise interest-rates. As one of those who wanted to raise rates Andrew Sentance has now left a change looks even less likely overall.
"The ECB is different as whilst it is under pressure due to the peripheral crisis in the Euro zone it is in a phase where it is raising interest-rates to combat inflationary pressure. If we look at its past language then a rise next month is much more likely than one today. This does matter as the ECB does have its own language or code, and this also means that this afternoons press conference will have many watchers (including me!) waiting to see which of their key phrases is used. For example "strong vigilance" in reference to inflation will mean a rate rise in July."
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