Election barometer predicts 60% chance of Miliband becoming next PM

28th April 2015


With just nine days until the general election, IG clients predict there is a 60% chance of Ed Miliband becoming the next Prime Minister.

The online trading platform says that since the election campaign began in late March there has only been one movement in this political market; a Miliband surge.

On March 12, Ed Miliband suffered his lowest point in this market, with just a 34% chance of winning. However since then the Labour Party leader has been making gains on David Cameron.

Ed Miliband’s most notable jump followed the Channel 4 debate between himself and Cameron. The positive polls saw his chance of being Prime Minister leap from 38% to 45% in the IG market.

He pulled level with Cameron on the day of the BBC opposition debate and has not looked back since.

Despite a slight recovery from Cameron on Sunday the signs are showing that is just a blip and the Labour leader is looking increasing likely to be the occupier of Number 10 come June.

Matt Brief, head of dealing at IG Group, says: “Over the last 10 days IG clients have become increasingly convinced that the Conservatives will win the most seats in Parliament, but Ed Miliband will be the UK’s Prime Minister. The two most likely scenarios emerging are a Labour minority government informally ‘supported’ by the SNP, or another Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition.

“While our clients are convinced there will be a late swing towards the Tories, the longer the polls stay deadlocked the more unlikely it becomes that a late shift in support for Cameron will be enough to keep him in 10 Downing Street.”

IG’s other markets are still pointing towards the Conservative winning more seats than Labour, 289 to 271, but not being able to form a government due to IG clients thinking that SNP will win 46 seats.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *