Could social networks provide a moral compass for the City?

6th July 2012

The Edelman Trust Barometer, a survey of public opinion about institutions and business sectors, shows that there is a deepening sense of distrust of the business world. And despite RDR, which is expected to result in many asset managers shutting or merging away a large number of funds due to the cost of introducing a new pricing structure, more reform is clearly needed.

10 thoughts on “Could social networks provide a moral compass for the City?”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Hi Shaun

    I saw earlier a worrying number in the Irish Independent online which backs up your concerns.

    “The EU’s latest survey on “poverty and social exclusion” shows that the number of children at risk in Ireland has reached 37.6pc, worse than Italy (32pc), Greece (31pc), Spain (30pc) or Portugal (29pc).”
    Still as you regularly point out this is no doubt “on track!”

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Josephine

      Thanks for the numbers. As soon as one peers more deeply into the Irish economy then the spin unravels and whilst there are good factors such as her trade performance there are also the bad. So she has not collapsed like some but the 2014/15 austerity will bite hard.

      1. Andy Zarse says:

        David McWilliams was interviewed by mad Max Keizer, it seems some of the financial institutions that were bailed out by the IMF have lent (and in some cases continue to do so) the IMF money for their bailout fund. Some more digging required but an incredible situation if there’s a hair of truth to it.

  2. forbin says:

    hello shaun,

    I have to admit the policy of saying theres nothing wrong and doing as little as possible seems to be working !

    under no circumstances mention the Iceland results – perhaps you should do a comparison between them and Ireland,Spain and Portugal …

    Forbin

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Forbin
      On the surface I agree with you as we have equity markets such as the Dow Jones hitting new highs. However like the proverbial Swan whilst it may be serene on the surface there is a lot of paddling going on underneath!
      A comparison like that is an interesting idea…

  3. Taurus says:

    HI Josephine,
    “The EU’s latest survey on “poverty and social exclusion” shows that the number of children at risk in Ireland has reached 37.6pc, worse than Italy (32pc), Greece (31pc), Spain (30pc) or Portugal (29pc).” Well it’s lucky that Senhor Barroso ‘takes a special interest in education and young people.’ otherwise it would be double.
    I suspect the lantern that burns day and night in the window of Presidential Palace at Phoenix Park marking Irish emigration will glow a little brigher in the coming years.

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Taurus

      Here are some numbers about the situation.

      “Up to the start of 2008 this demographic effect had been adding
      65,000 or more to the labour force on an annual basis, primarily driven by net inward migration. This demographic effect peaked at almost 88,000 in the second quarter of 2007. With the decline in inward migration the positivedemographic effect started to fall in the second half of 2007 and continued to decline throughout 2008 and 2009
      before becoming negative in Q4 2009. In Q4 2012 this negative demographic effect contributed 9,900 to the overall decline in the labour force, representing more than half of the total annual decline. This negative demographic effect is almost exclusively concentrated in the 20-24 and 25-34 age groups. ”

      Unless some new disease has struck those age groups are likely to be affected by emigration……And of course they are an age group that countries least want to lose especially in an era of aging populations.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Very interesting column, Shaun. On what basis do you believe that leaving cash purchases out of the residential property price index leads to an underestimate of the decline in house prices? Possibly you are right, but I don’t see why that would necessarily be the case. It seems the Irish CSO is looking at picking up the missing cash transactions using stamp duty data, so with some luck we may have solid information on this before long.

    The Irish RPPI was developed in large part to provide a house price index for the owner-occupied housing series based on a net acquisitions approach that all European Economic Area countries must provide Euorstat by September 2014. There was none to monitor in the years up to 2007, when the Irish housinng price bubble burst; if there had been, things might not have gotten so out of hand.

    1. Anonymous says:

      Hi Andrew

      Yes stable meet horse! For those who do not understand English vernacular there is a saying “it’s like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted” or what you are trying to prevent has already happened!

      As to your specific question one reply would be that in such markets cash buyers are likely to have the flexibility to get the cheapest deals such as the property auctions which have been held in Dublin. Those that waded through the wedge of not well organised data initially released by Daft (I know,I know) on the new RPPI feel that cash transactions would show further falls but we will have to wait for a more reliable series to say the numbers definitively back it up although if pressed I would say that I will not be losing sleep tonight wondering!

      If you wish to look at it laterally there is the question of why prices in Northern Ireland have fallen more heavily…

      1. Anonymous says:

        Hi Shaun,

        Cynically I’d ask if these property indexes are worth the paper they’re written on. Stamp duty on a cash transaction – the duty is smaller for smaller transactions, so buyers have an incentive to under declare. Capital gains tax gives sellers an incentive to under declare, for most Irish sellers this would be a nice problem to have.

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